Why Kendrick Brothers and Miller Confuse Hollywood

Warren Miller EntertainmentWarren Miller Entertainment is the most respected name in shooting action sports films since 1949. I met director Warren Miller when I was at the university. He brought his team to La Crosse Mountain and shot stunt and trick skiers for one of his feature films. He also shot some comedic scenes that included my university drum line skiing down the slopes while we played our marching drums.

In fact the entire Marching Chiefs, our high stepping competitive marching band, also participated in the shoot – Well, at least the ones that knew how to ski. I’m not sure how it happened, but I also ended up playing my marching snare in television commercials demonstrating how wide the newest grocery store’s aisles where. But I’ve digressed.

Miller was known internationally for his great sports films and every university showed his movies regularly. The films drew large crowds based on the exciting tricks and the comedic fails and spills. And yes, our bass drummer took a nasty spill into the snow knocking over several other band members. As for me, I learned how to do 360s and helicopter spins from the trick skiers – After I had taken off my snare drum.

Miller’s films pulled in millions of dollars every year and confused Hollywood. They couldn’t get a handle on why he was successful. When they tried to copy his tactics to capture some of the revenue, the studios failed miserably. Some how Miller was the king of his niche market and made the exact type of films his audience required, complete with his own personal narration on most pictures.

War Room the MovieHollywood has never understood niche markets, especially in the latest genre of faith-based films. The Kendrick Brothers are now the latest source of Hollywood’s frustrations as their “War Room” movie continues to exceed expectations.

Several critics complain about their movies being stories that preach to the figurative choir, which causes Alex Kendrick to laugh, shake his head, and say, “they just don’t get it.” While the critics want the Kendricks to make their films more palatable for those outside of their niche, the brothers continue to make their trademark films for their niche audience.

Stephen and Alex are preachers who know exactly how to create movies that “preach” an important message to their niche audience. Their goal is to help the “church” understand important principles that can be implemented in their lives for the good of their families. They don’t care about the money or expanding the audience, but the witness their films make and the changed lives that result.

SUPER FANThe Kendricks and Miller have the ideal job as a filmmaker, which only comes about when a director finds his audience. They are able to make the shows they want and in the way they want. The great blessing for both comes in the form of super fans that make sure audiences continue to watch every film they make.

In the industry, production companies try to build a fan base of 500,000 people because that’s the number needed to continue doing what the directors of the show love to do. When the numbers are below that point of demarcation, studios and networks start dictating how the shows are made, which confines the director’s talent.

Thanks to social media and the faster flow of information, production companies now only need 1,000 super fans to give the director the same creative control that used to take a half a million fans to achieve. Both the Kendricks and Miller have their 1,000 super fans that support the director’s untainted vision.

Since Hollywood doesn’t understand the power of niche markets, and therefore understands little about super fans, they are forced to work with the Kendricks and Miller regardless of how they might judge the quality or universality of the films being released. In other words, they don’t get it.

Fans are people who like the artist’s work enough to tell a couple people about it. Super fans are people that not only like the artist’s work, but also do what’s in their power to help the artist get noticed. They are the fans that tell hundreds or thousands of people about their art.

I first learned about super fans when I met Miller. He introduced me to one of his super fans that pulled together enough showings for his films that he’d breakeven far before the budgets required. Miller was happy to help his super fan whenever he had the chance.

I’ve heard that the Kendricks also have super fans that are great influencers and leaders of churches. Every time they release a film, their super fans stir entire mega congregations to get out to the theaters and watch the important films.

This confuses Hollywood all the more. The studios and networks all believe that a film lives and dies based on its story and production values, not its message. However, a team of great super fans makes sure the pictures are successful regardless of the filmmakers ability to tell a great story or place high production values on screen.

Thankfully, both the Kendricks and Miller continually improved on their production values as a way of thanking the audience that supported their films. The more they worked on their story, the wider the audience grew beyond their niche.

This expansion is the only thing Hollywood might comprehend, but it may be a while before they understand how niche markets work. After all, Hollywood is too big to comprehend how niche films bless community.

Copyright © 2015 by CJ Powers

Box Office Mendoza Line

Mendoza Trading CardMany times critics and filmmakers argue about the quality of a film’s content or message against its story. Star power and a filmmaker’s ability to draw in an audience also factor into arguments about what makes a film successful. But, one factor stands the test of time and survives all arguments about the monetary success of a film: the box office Mendoza line.

Named after baseball’s Mario Mendoza, whose mediocre batting average defined the threshold for incompetent hitting, the box office marks the threshold when theaters drop titles from its screens for the next best opportunity to make money.

The moment a film drops below a per screen average of $2,000 per weekend, it’s no longer viable as a money making device. This amount has stood the test of time based on competitive new releases, negotiated house nuts and the duration of marketing budgets.

When a film crosses the Mendoza line distributors stop promoting the film in order to cut its potential losses and replace it with new selections. Films that fail to rise above the Mendoza line rarely survive past the second week in theaters, as numerous films fight for the few open screens during each release period.

This is partially due to distributors not wanting to lose a screen to a competitor and desiring to manage risk mitigation on the film’s current margins. Theaters also need to maintain a certain level of revenue stream in order to protect its house nut (its negotiated take on concessions).

While the exit strategy on films typically cause titles to have a long distribution tail, very little revenue is generated during this period. Most films only make 5-10% more unless it’s in a light distribution window that can generate an additional15%.

Analysts that estimate each film’s market potential and weekend predictions, use additional tools that determine expected thresholds of a film’s longevity. For instance, prior to making adjustments based on the impact of social media, all films will make 50% of its opening during its second weekend. The third weekend will make 50% of the second weekend’s box office and so on.

However, advertising and social media directly impact the percentage. The alterations can change the percentage from 50% to 35-55%. The addition or dropping of screens due to contract changes or regional performance success can also impact the percentage by a plus or minus 30-45%. While these sound like huge swings, an analyst who has tracked the market for two years can easily estimate within a plus or minus 5% of accuracy.

Analysts do take into account outliers and transitions within sub-genres, which paint clear pictures of market trends. This gives production and acquisition departments a leg up when determining future investments and expansion.

Production companies also benefit from understanding and tracking the Mendoza line. Any picture that never rises above it or falls too quickly below it either has too few super-fans or has a story that didn’t connect on a universal basis. In a fragmented market that’s filled with social media, a film only needs 1,000 super-fans (or influential fans) to succeed.

The combination of factors that keep a film above the Mendoza line for numerous weeks includes a great story, influential super-fans, star power and provocative social media. Writer/directors have also become a factor over the past ten years, but are still considered new to the promotional cycle.

Copyright © 2015 by CJ Powers

Creating with Opposites

Creating with OppositesI’ve never understood “writers block” or not being able to create something new. Every time I have a slight delay of thought, I change my perspective and I’m flooded with buckets of new ideas. Creativity flows whenever I shift my perspective to something unique.

One change of perspective can come about by considering the opposite. Let’s say I wanted to create a new restaurant or café. The easiest first step is making a list of what restaurants are, such as:

  1. A place with a menu selection of food.
  2. A place to order food.
  3. A place to have food served.

The list could continue, but for this example I’m good with a short list. Now, keep in mind that this list is based on my assumptions of what a restaurant is. It’s possible that not all restaurants have all three. Some places might be more unique, thanks to a creative person who gave input at the onset of the idea. So to pump creativity into my new restaurant idea, I try to list out the opposites:

  1. A place without any form of menu.
  2. A place where food can’t be ordered or bought.
  3. A place where no one serves the food.

This list of opposites opens up the mind and starts my creative process. While the logical person says that’s stupid, the creative soul plays with the ideas. The creative picks a few of the opposites and brainstorms.

What if…

…My restaurant had no menu?

Maybe the chef comes to the table and shares what ingredients and meats he procured that afternoon for the freshest of meals. He shares some ideas with those at the table and based on consensus cooks up a culinary delight. And, sends the family home with the recipe for a future gathering.

…People can’t order food at my restaurant?

Maybe it’s a beautiful setting with privatized ambiance that is rented by the hour and guests bring their own food. Instead of ordering extras that were forgotten by the host, shelves of free supplements are available for use.

…No one serves the food?

Maybe a top chef tosses various plates of food onto a counter for anyone to grab. Each dish is uniquely made from various country recipes and then put on display for anyone to claim. Each presentation perfectly brings out the key elements that make the meal unique to its country.

By using the opposites to brainstorm, several more ideas pop into my head that venture me off in a direction that will make my restaurant unique. Those unordinary possibilities would drive marketing and entice foodies to try something new and refreshing.

Years ago I came up with an idea using opposites and shared it with friends. Everyone was interested in trying my restaurant if I ever got around to making it. Two years later Walt Disney World opened a new restaurant that was so similar that I realized my venture idea could’ve been a success — All due to a creative use of opposites.

Copyright © 2015 by CJ Powers